CS2 Trade Up Calculator: Float, Chance of Profit, and Expected Value

Every possible outcome of your contract, with its probability, output float, and wear, plus cost, expected value, expected profit, chance of profit, and return based on current Steam prices. For example, 3x P90 | Asiimov with float 0.25 and 2x M4A1-S | Cyrex with float 0.12 yield one of 13 Butterfly Knife skins, each with a 7.69% chance. A Butterfly Knife Fade would come out as Factory New with float 0.0207.

A standard contract requires 10 skins of the same rarity and yields a skin of the next higher rarity. A Covert contract for a knife or gloves takes exactly 5 skins. In standard contracts, each input collection must have a skin at the next rarity level. If you mix rarities or use the wrong number of skins, the trade-up calculator shows what's wrong with the contract.

Each input float is first normalized to its skin's float range: (float minus minimum) divided by (maximum minus minimum). The average of these values is then mapped to the outcome's range: minimum plus average times (maximum minus minimum). That's why the same contract can yield one skin in Factory New and another in Field-Tested. The tool flags outcomes close to a wear threshold.

The game randomly selects one of your inputs, each with the same chance. The outcome comes from that input's collection, where all skins of the next rarity are equally likely. With 7 of 10 skins from a collection that has 2 possible outcomes, each has a probability of 7 divided by 10 divided by 2, or 35%. This is how CS2 has calculated outcomes since the October 22, 2025 update; Valve does not publish official odds.

Yes. Since October 22, 2025, you can trade 5 Covert skins for a knife or gloves from the case associated with one of your input skins' collections. The collection must have a weapon case with a rare item; map and Armory collections do not count. 5 StatTrak™ Covert skins yield a StatTrak™ knife. Gloves are not available as StatTrak™, so they are excluded.

StatTrak™ is all or nothing: a contract contains either only StatTrak™ skins or only regular skins. Since May 2026, Souvenir skins can be included in a contract with regular skins, but the outcome will never be a Souvenir. In the tool, select the quality at the top and mark Souvenir skins individually.

Prices come from the Steam Community Market: the current lowest listing price for each skin and wear. They are cached for a while for all visitors because Steam allows only a few requests per minute. Steam takes around 15% when you sell, so by default the tool calculates outcome values after this fee.

Usually not on average: if the expected value is below your cost, you'll lose money over many contracts, even if individual outcomes are worth a lot. The chance of profit shows how often an outcome is worth more than your cost. Use your skins' actual floats for every contract; even small differences can change the outcome's wear.

The calculator is free and requires neither an account nor a Steam login. Your contract is stored in the page URL; use “Copy link” to share the exact same calculation. “Load example” fills in a ready-made knife contract. The tool only calculates outcomes; no items are traded.